Monday continues to show a break down as the Atlantic pushes in.

Some exceptionally heavy rain is likely across parts of Ireland with flooding a very real likelihood.

As for the rest of Scotland, England and Wales the occlusion that will bring with it some impressively high rainfall totals to Ireland will continue to move in from the Western approaches to affect Western and South Western parts during Monday.  Quite heavy pulses are likely, locally very heavy moving through South West England and areas stretching from Poole to Southampton and the Isle of Wight.  The heavy rain continuing to march on in to affect most parts during Monday Night into Tuesday Morning.

Widespread totals of 15 – 20mm are expected, as high as 30 – 40mm in worst affected areas – likely to be parts of the South West and much of Wales.  Perhaps parts of the Midlands and Northern England.

Due to the nature of the low, a lot of the rain is likely to become convective with the odd isolated rumble of thunder thrown in for good measure.  Also meaning that some of the rain showers will be very heavy indeed.

Locally excessive rainfall across England and Wales is likely to lead to localised flooding in a few areas and caution is very much advised.  If you do reside in Ireland, some very large rainfall totals are possible as the low stalls and engages with the warm moist frontal boundary.  Values in excess of 70mm are possible in a few locations with some guidance suggesting the possibility of 100mm.  Potentially a quite serious flood threat will be possible for Ireland during this upcoming rainfall event.

As we move into the rest of the week a long-wave trough dominates the weather with sunny intervals and a scattering of showers at times, some of these heavy and perhaps thundery in nature with hail – especially earlier in the week under cooling upper levels.  As for temperatures this coming week, they will linger around average with the mid teens being reached across Northern parts and the low end 20’s across the South and Midlands.