Archive for December, 2009

Issued Friday 18th December 2009 at 11.00 – for period Saturday, Sunday & Monday 19th/20th and 21st December

Through the evening into the night the band is expected to filter further South to most of Wales, Central Southern England and East Anglia – areas towards the West could see a transition from rain/sleet to snow but minor accumulations are still possible even across Devon and Cornwall.  Between 2 – 5cm is widely expected, areas to the West of the Watch zone perhaps seeing up-to 2cm.  Some areas perhaps only a dusting.

A couple of cm will be possible for the London area too.  So plenty to watch through the course of today with most of us at risk of some snow.  As we move into Monday further snow showers, some frequent and heavy will affect North West England accompanied by strengthening winds, blizzards and snow drifts – especially to higher ground.  The worst affected areas are expected to be North West England and much of Yorkshire.

Further extreme conditions are expected to develop as we move into the weekend with the main emphasis shifting to the North with all of Scotland and much of Northern England at risk of severe travel disruption. Some very extreme conditions will be increasingly likely for North West England including the major cities of Manchester and Liverpool with blizzards likely at times. We do anticipate some extremely dangerous weather conditions in Yorkshire and the North West in particular and early advice would be to avoid travelling unless absolutely necessary. Significant accumulations of 10 – 20cm look widely possible in the worst affected zones – locally up-to or in excess of 30cm that’s 12″ – an early extreme weather alert is likely to be issued for Saturday PM running into Monday.

During Saturday many parts of the country will see some sleet and snow with accumulations in many places – these will be patchy and considerable less in nature in a few isolated locations but generally a figure of 2 – 5cm can be widely expected – in excess of 10cm for a few especially to higher ground. Parts of Yorkshire is expected to see some significant falls with in excess of 20cm drifting to 1 foot.

So if you haven’t seen some snow yet, then we are very confident that you will by the end of the weekend. Please stay in touch with Met-Monkey for further updates on this dangerous weather situation as we move into the weekend. Severe disruption and extremely dangerous weather conditions are expected and this could extend to a large proportion of the United Kingdom. Additional blizzards during Sunday across NW England is a very big concern and will mean the risk of power outages and major problems.

Snowfall to Continue for East Anglia, London and the South East Today and Tonight

Issued Friday 18th December 2009 at 11.00 – for period Friday into Saturday 19th December

Overnight we have seen significant falls of snow across many parts of Yorkshire, North East England, Scotland, Lincolnshire, Northamptonshire, East Anglia, The Home Counties, London, Berkshire, Hampshire and parts of Sussex and Kent.  In between 5 – 10cm has fallen quite widely and severe travel disruption is affecting many of the worst affected areas including airport closures at Gatwick and Luton.

As we move into the rest of Friday snow showers and more organised bands of snow will continue to filter across parts of Norfolk, Suffolk, Kent, Essex and Sussex especially with further accumulations of 5 – 10cm for many.  In excess of 10cm will be possible across parts of Norfolk, areas around or close to the Wash and parts of Northern Kent.  Some of these showers could again be heavy and thundery in nature – especially in East Anglia and Kent.

Showers may be slightly sleety in nature near far South East coastlines which may locally lower totals – but generally 5cm can be expected.

We do anticipate further severe disruption to transport during the course of the next 24/36 hours.

A snow watch will be issued for Northern and North West England as the significant snowfall emphasis shifts during the weekend.  Please stay safe and avoid travelling unless absolutely necessary.

Significant Snowfall & Blizzards Expected for East Anglia & South East England + London

Issued Wednesday 16th December 2009 at 18.00 – for period Thursday 17th & Friday 18th

Flash Watch:  Significant Snowfall is now expected to extend slightly further West and anyone residing in the London area are advised to avoid travelling unless absolutely necessary during Friday.  In excess of 15cm will be possible in parts of the Capital leading to severe disruption.

An extreme weather alert has now been issued 12 hours in advance for a period of heavy snow and snow showers that will begin to affect Lincolnshire, East Anglia, Essex, Kent and Sussex on Thursday well into Friday.  Strong to Locally Very Strong winds – perhaps coastal Gales will accompany the snow giving blizzard conditions across higher ground – these extending to lower levels at times.  Parts of Kent especially could see up-to one foot of snow falling between now and Friday – which is expected to bring widespread severe disruption to transport.

These severe conditions will extend into much of Lincolnshire, Norfolk, Suffolk and the London area with 5 – 10cm expected quite widely.  Some areas will see in excess of 20cm and disruption to travel across London is possible in the next few days.  Through the period snow showers will also feed into some Central and Southern areas of England giving localised accumulations – generally not significant but perhaps enough to cause localised disruption to travel networks.

As we move into the weekend, more snow is likely and the risk is expected to extend into Central, Northern and some Western areas with accumulations becoming more widespread.  This could well lead to further travel disruption and we will of course keep you in the picture as we move closer to the weekend and beyond.  Snowfall totals in the South East and East especially could become very significant as further snow showers and bands of heavy snow are forecast for the weekend into the week leading up-to Christmas.  Snow could still be on the ground on Christmas Eve in some parts.

Please keep visiting Met-Monkey for the latest information on the weather conditions in your area.

Heavy Snow on Thursday & Friday for NE/E/SE England – Disruption Expected

Issued Monday 14th December 2009 at 12.30 – for period Thursday and Friday 17th and 18th

Situation

A very cold and unstable Easterly airflow becomes established from late Wednesday Evening and transient showers of rain, sleet and snow will become predominately of snow across Yorkshire, Lincolnshine, Norfolk, Suffolk, Essex, Kent and Sussex into Thursday and Friday.

Frequent and often heavy snow showers will penetrate into much of North East, East and South East England during the course of Thursday with some locally heavier accumulations across parts of South Yorkshire, Lincolnshire and areas immediately around the Wash.  Norfolk and Suffolk will also see frequent falls.

Generally in excess of 12cm is likely in parts of the East and a Heavy Snow Risk has been issued for locally excessive and significant falls.

The significant snow risk greatly increases for Essex, Kent and the Sussex areas during Thursday with 12cm+ likely in many locations – to lower ground near the coast perhaps 5 – 10cm is more realistic.

Snow showers are also expected to penetrate quite a way inland and parts of the Midlands, Central Southern and Southern England including the West Country will also be at risk of some localised falls and where showers fall, they will be of snow and in prolonged outbreaks 2 – 5cm is generally possible.

Please refer to the snowfall risk assessment to the right for more detailed information.  Remember these values are approximate and locally falls could well exceed what has been forecast – especially in higher value regions.

Disruption to transport is very likely and weather conditions are expected to become severe to locally very severe.

Snow Snow Snow, Oh Where Will You Go?

Issued Sunday 13th December 2009 at 22.00

The cold flood gates have opened, and so the bitter air has rattled towards us and no doubt you would of been out and about, Christmas shopping or preparing for the festivities.

So what next?  Well as you will be aware – there has been a frantic weather watch going on – numerous times a day and Met-Monkey is busier than it has ever been.  When this happens, it can only mean one thing.  We stand a pretty good chance of seeing that magical word – never to be mentioned lightly Snow.  The wintry flavour will kick into gear as early as Monday with rain showers migrating across many parts of the country – some of these wintry across higher ground of the Pennines especially.  To lower levels we still anticipate mostly rain at this stage – although the odd pulse of sleet or hail can not be ruled out.

The low that is forecast to move WSW will continue to do so and will still be producing pulses of rain during Monday Night – it is at this stage that the first real signs of wintriness is anticipated and some parts of Eastern, Northern and perhaps some Southern Counties could see spells of sleet and wet snow – accumulations favoured across higher ground – but by no means exclusively.  In some places we could be looking at 1 – 4cm – although there remains some uncertainties on the extent and spatial distribution and this will be covered in the weather warnings closer to the time.

It’s from Thursday onwards that the air will turn cold enough everywhere for anything falling to fall as snow and we do anticipate some accumulations in Northern and Eastern parts – as well as the risk perhaps extending into parts of Central England and parts of the South.  As we move through into the weekend the risk of perhaps more significant falls is being monitored and it is some-thing we are keeping a very close eye on.

How long is this to last?  That question remains uncertain – but there is potential in place for it to extend beyond Christmas and into the New Year.  Early indications are for a slight break-down around Christmas, which could bring a spell of frontal snow to Northern Areas – but this is uncertain and we will as ever keep you informed of the Christmas risk in our White Christmas round-up found at http://met-monkey.co.uk/?page_id=96

Through the next week leading into the weekend and beyond we do expect disruption to travel networks and locally dangerous conditions to arise so please take extra care, look after the elderly and keep warm.

Snow Need for Teashirts – Winter Woollies at the Ready

Issued Thursday 10th December 2009 at 17.00

Okay, so the headline is a funny play on words – but realistically it will become much more colder as we go into the next few weeks.  As we’ve mentioned previous, plenty of cold days to come from here on in – frosty and foggy mornings where the cloud clears.  Some of this fog is likely to be very stubborn in spots and even  late lifting of this fog will have a tendency to leave a lot of cloud behind.

It won’t all be doom and gloom.  Sunny breaks will be likely in places and although it won’t feel particularly warm – dry weather is most definitely welcome.  We’d strongly advise that you break open that box and get those winter woolies ready though – this cold spell will not go away quickly.  As for how long it will last, there are still mixed signals – but we could well be looking well into the lead up-to Christmas and perhaps beyond into the New Year.

What many will be wondering is will it snow?  The answer is increasingly, yes it will.  In fact we could well be looking at our first wintry mix from as early as Monday the 14th December – Eastern and Northern areas the most favoured at present.  Elsewhere snow flurries could well be blowing in the wind by the start of next week.  Anything significant still needs to be assessed and we can assure you we will be keeping an eye on the possibilities and will inform you instantly should some-thing interesting evolve.  As we move on into the 3rd week of December, there is the risk of very cold air intruding into many parts which could also lead to a significant snow risk.

For the time being, be prepared for increasingly cold and wintry weather – where ever you are.

For the White Christmas Risk please visit our watch outlook at: http://met-monkey.co.uk/?page_id=96

Further updates to this outlook will be added, don’t forget to wrap up warm and keep visiting regularly for the updates on the cold and snow possibilities.

Forecast Special – Week Saturday 12th till Tuesday 15th December 2009

Introduction

As we are aware – we’re entering a major change in the weather over the next few weeks.  We’ve had plenty, in fact too much rain in places these past few weeks and the good news is that is about to change.  Drier weather is on the way as HIGH pressure becomes assertive.  The placement of this high pressure will have a fairly large bearing on just how dry the weather will become.  We will also start to draw in some much drier and much colder continental air at times, so feeling chilly too.  So, despite some slight uncertainties this is what we expect moving into the next week.  We have intentionally only covered until Tuesday – beyond we do expect colder weather to encroach with perhaps the higher risk of wintriness for parts of Eastern and Northern Britain especially.  As always we’ll keep you informed.

Saturday 12th December 2009

The day is expected to dawn cold everywhere – although many areas to the South should be frost free generally – perhaps a light ground frost in places.  The wind will pick up ensuring that the cold, dry and stagnant air becomes mixed allowing temperatures to remain for the best part above freezing.  A frosty morning will be possible across parts of Wales and Northern Britain as temperatures fall away close to or just below freezing – isolated fog patches will form and could well be stubborn to clear.  It will feel cold where fog patches linger with temperatures close to or just above freezing for much of the day – elsewhere feeling cold but not too bad in the pleasant sunny breaks – the odd thicker patch of cloud which could produce some light drizzle may linger around South East and Eastern Coasts.  Temperatures around 4 – 7oC in sunny breaks.

Ice & Frost Risk = 40% mainly for the North

Snow Risk = 5% Very Unlikely

Sunday 13th December 2009
Overnight rain showers are expected to persist in the South East and parts of Eastern England through much of the day with limited brightness and thick cloud – these becoming locally moderate at times and could well be locally sleety across higher ground – although predominately rain to lower levels. Colder and locally frosty in the West and some Central areas with patchy fog slow to clear. Bright spells will emerge for some and although cold at 3 – 5oC locally as high as 6oC it will be pleasant enough for a walk – the woollies will definitely needed.

Ice & Frost Risk = 40% mainly for the North/Central and Western Areas

Snow Risk = 20% Locally Possible to High Ground – Although Mostly Sleet

Monday 14th December 2009
Again a cold and dry morning for many areas away from the East with temperatures lingering mostly above freezing, with exception of Northern areas where some frost and fog patches are likely as temperatures fall close to or below freezing in sheltered areas and to higher ground. A cold but gentle easterly breeze will pick up slightly and is likely to filter in thicker cloud to Eastern areas at times – perhaps the odd shower at times, these falling as rain and sleet and partially wintry to the very highest ground during early morning into much of Monday. The odd wintry flurry can not be ruled out across the Pennines through the day – but generally dry and becoming bright away from the far East and North. Feeling cold though as temperatures struggle to rise much above 3oC – where fog lingers temperatures will struggle to reach above freezing.

Ice & Frost Risk = 40% mainly for the North

Snow Risk = 20% Slightly Possible, Although a Mix of Cold/Rain is more probable to lower levels

Tuesday 15th December 2009
Mostly dry and cold once again with a patchy ground frost in some Central Southern and Northern areas of Britain. Don’t be surprised to see a few snow grains leading into Tuesday Morning – although for the best part these are not expected to amount to anything. As with the last few days bright spells will develop always more readily in the West. Cloudier in the East with limited brightness. Again temperatures just above freezing with a high of 3oC for some areas – perhaps a degree or two milder in the far East and near the coast.

Ice & Frost Risk = 60% Central Southern Britain and parts of the North

Snow Risk = 30% Monday Night into Tuesday Morning could pose a risk of wintriness to lower levels – although nothing significant expected

It’s Time to get High! Colder Weather Coming our Way

Issued Monday 7th December 2009 at 11.00

We all get a little high during Christmas, be it on the odd tipple of strong stuff or on love and affection and giving.  It seems the weather and mother-nature is joining in on our fun.

High pressure remains to be the strong over bearing signal as we move into the latter stages of this week bringing a reasonably prolonged spell of settled and increasingly cold weather to our shores.  A welcome relief to parts of North West, South West and South England who have suffered from excessive rainfall events and flooding recently.

The day of change commences from the Thursday 10th December.  High pressure builds to the East of the US Seaboard up into Greenland, mean-while closer to our neck of the woods high pressure retrogresses and in builds from Iberia into Siberia.  During the period High Pressure is expected to become stationed close to or directly over us and dry relatively cold continental air will get dragged in under the surface.

Plenty of foggy, cold and predominately dry days will follow well into the weekend and through the course of next week – night-time frosts becoming sharper and more severe as we move through the week commencing 14th December.  Temperatures during the day will often struggle to rise much above 5oC with many places hovering close to or just above freezing.  As we progress the risk of ice days may well come into play – but we really are still in the infancy stages of this forecast period, so we’ll keep you posted on that little bonus.

Overall, we still advise that if you have a little money to hand – it’s worth placing a bet on a white Christmas – after-all it’s set to be a cold one.  The details as ever in this kind of set-up are still trying to be ironed out but there is the increasing risk of the very cold flood gates opening from the East and dare we say it perhaps the increasing risk of snow as we enter the latter stages of December into the beginning of the New Year.

As ever we’ll keep you in the loop over the next few weeks.  The best advice at the moment is make sure you’ve stocked up on winter woollies and are prepared to scrape the ice off the car.  Paths could become a little on the slippery side too, so easy as you go.

Cold Possibilities on The Horizon – But How Cold?

Issued Saturday 5th December 2009 at 12.00

The talk at this time of the year is will it be cold in time for Christmas. Will we have a magical White Christmas? Will it snow? We’re beginning to enter an important period where we can piece together the complex festive jigsaw.

Matching repeating trends in the major weather models is one of the keys and we’re beginning to pick up the first pieces of what could be an increasingly cold jigsaw as we move into the Christmas period, or perhaps just before.

The cold spell is almost 70% likely leading into the Christmas period, the question remains how cold? For how long will it be cold? and how wet and cold will it be? Nevertheless, despite many of these questions needing to be answered, we are increasingly confident that a potentially cold spell could arise as we move into the festive period.

Judging by the trend, we could be looking at the best chance of a white Christmas for over 20 years – so if you are thinking of placing a bet before the odds get cut – it could be worth it. We’re not saying it is going to snow or indeed whether it will be cold enough. What we are saying is the model output and signals are strengthening towards this cooling trend. Just how severe or cold it will get, only time will tell. But be prepared for some colder weather as we move into the latter stages of December and the beginning of January.

We’ll update this article numerous times before the festive period.