A lot of things are beginning to fall into place in the Tropical Atlantic Basin with numerous things happening or forecast to occur as we move towards the beginning and middle of August.

  • CMC model guidance hints at the first significant lowering of MSLP around 38oW, 10oN centred in the Central Atlantic basin a couple of hundred miles West of the Cape Verde chain. CMC guidance often overdoes intensification of tropical cyclones.
  • GFS guidance is hinting at increased theta-e gradients between 800-200mb during the period 3rd August running into the middle of the month. MSLP projections are not quite so well developed or as low, but decreases in Easterly winds in North of the ITCZ bodes well for a general decrease in upstream shear tendency conducive to the development of tropical system formation.
  • SAL (Saharan Air Layer) projections UW-CIMMS/NOAA-HRD are currently moderate in the Western portion of the Atlantic Basin on approach to the Outer Antilles. Strengthening SST should cause an increase in vertical motion and mix out a lot of the drier air that could cause entrainment issues.
  • Finally, the MJO wave train or pulse is expected to enter octant 1 and 2 which is a favourable phase for enhanced tropical activity in the Atlantic Basin.

So after some waiting, the start of the Atlantic Hurricane Season 2010 is not too far away.