Very Wet Monday, Sunny Periods & Showers – Some Thundery to Follow
Sep 1st
Monday continues to show a break down as the Atlantic pushes in.
Some exceptionally heavy rain is likely across parts of Ireland with flooding a very real likelihood.
As for the rest of Scotland, England and Wales the occlusion that will bring with it some impressively high rainfall totals to Ireland will continue to move in from the Western approaches to affect Western and South Western parts during Monday. Quite heavy pulses are likely, locally very heavy moving through South West England and areas stretching from Poole to Southampton and the Isle of Wight. The heavy rain continuing to march on in to affect most parts during Monday Night into Tuesday Morning.
Widespread totals of 15 – 20mm are expected, as high as 30 – 40mm in worst affected areas – likely to be parts of the South West and much of Wales. Perhaps parts of the Midlands and Northern England.
Due to the nature of the low, a lot of the rain is likely to become convective with the odd isolated rumble of thunder thrown in for good measure. Also meaning that some of the rain showers will be very heavy indeed.
Locally excessive rainfall across England and Wales is likely to lead to localised flooding in a few areas and caution is very much advised. If you do reside in Ireland, some very large rainfall totals are possible as the low stalls and engages with the warm moist frontal boundary. Values in excess of 70mm are possible in a few locations with some guidance suggesting the possibility of 100mm. Potentially a quite serious flood threat will be possible for Ireland during this upcoming rainfall event.
As we move into the rest of the week a long-wave trough dominates the weather with sunny intervals and a scattering of showers at times, some of these heavy and perhaps thundery in nature with hail – especially earlier in the week under cooling upper levels. As for temperatures this coming week, they will linger around average with the mid teens being reached across Northern parts and the low end 20’s across the South and Midlands.
Improving Picture – Cool & Showery becoming Largely Settled
Aug 27th
The wave train tied into a few embedded frontal depressions will finally exit the East and South East of the United Kingdom during Friday after bringing some rather impressive rainfall totals.
So what does the Bank Holiday weekend have in store for us? A ridge of high pressure tries to build in from the South Western approaches, so an ever improving picture is the true reflection across Western and South Western England with some pleasant sunny breaks developing on Saturday. Elsewhere across Northern, Central and Eastern parts a scattering of showers can be expected as a wave from the North West moves South East. Showers most likely and prominent around Wind facing coasts of the North West. As for temperatures, a definite fresher feel to things will become apparent as a Pm (Polar Maritime) airmass becomes established. A range of 16 – 20oC in the South and 11 to 15oC in the North.
As we move into Sunday things settle down even more with more in the way of widespread sunny spells and less in the way of showers, although the odd isolated one can still be expected on the exit of our wave across Eastern parts – but by this stage most areas should be mostly dry and pleasant. Temperatures remaining cool with a range of 16 – 19oC in the South and 12 – 15oC in the North.
Finally Monday is likely to be the best of the days as HIGH pressure from the West builds right across the country with pleasant and prolonged sunny spells and remaining dry everywhere. It will remain cool with a similar range of 17 – 19oC expected in the South and 15 – 17oC in the North.
As we move into the new week the weather is expected to remain largely settled throughout with spells of variable cloud on occasion and some good sunny breaks. Remaining cool in the North – but perhaps becoming slightly warmer in the South with temperatures up into the low twenties celcius.
Lastly, we are monitoring the likelihood of 1 or 2 MAJOR hurricanes Danielle and Earl becoming absorbed into the Atlantic flow, well to our West. Right now we expect the ridge of HIGH pressure occupying the United Kingdom to hold out, steering these intense rain and wind produces to our North and West. As ever though, we’ll keep you in the picture should anything significant evolve.
